TUESDAY, JANUARY 12, 2010 11:00 AM EST

(4:00 PM LONDON) (5:00 PM PARIS) (6:00 PM ATHENS)



Forecasting the Future

Presented by
Marshall Islands Registry

Media Sponsors

Moderated by:

Clay Maitland, Managing Partner - International Registries, Inc. and Founding Chairman of NAMEPA (North American Marine Environment Protection Association)

Featured Panelists:

Jonathan B. Chappell, CFA - Executive Director, Equity Research - J.P. Morgan Equity Research

Randee E. Day, Managing Director and Head of Marine - Seabury Group

James H. Power, Partner - Holland & Knight LLP

Panel Structure

The focus of the discussion (and the Q&A) will be only on sector trends and fundamentals, and not on company specifics or company recommendations. The discussion will cover Forecasting the Future.


In October 2008, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargos had plunged 86% after hitting a recorded high of 11,793 in late May of 2008. Several forecasters predicted a continued weakening into 2009 and extending into 2010.

We are now entering 2010, and while the global economy is still in a highly volatile condition, the worst-case scenarios have not been borne out.

In the world's ship yards, approximately 3, 500 vessels are under construction. China's yards for instance will deliver a record number of ships next year. Ship owners are expected to ask for order cancellations and delivery delays as a result of financial difficulties.

China continues to support the dry bulk market in every sector, offsetting a 3% global downturn in seaborne commodities trade.

In 2008, major mining firms predicted heavy cuts in Chinese steel production. Steel makers such as Arcelor Mittal cut their production by 15%. China's biggest steel maker, Baosteel, reduced output by 10%, and its four second-tier producers Shougang, Hebei, Anyang, and Shandong reduced output by 20%.

The forecasters to an extent were wrong. China and other countries in the developing world have continued to demand record-breaking amounts of coal, iron ore, and oil, and these have boosted capesize rates higher than anyone could have anticipated 12 months ago.

Chinese steel mills restocked, powered by government-backed lending surge and fiscal stimulus. China suffered little more than a minor growth slow-down, thanks to a highly effective government stimulus program and massive credit expansion.

The discussion will focus on the outlook of key topics affecting the state of the shipping industry:
  • Commodities Outlook in 2010 (Oil, Iron Ore & Coal)
  • China and Impact on Shipping
  • Shipyards & Order Book
  • Market Outlook for Dry Bulk, Tankers & Containers
  • Latest Capital Raising & Alternative Financing Options
  • Legal Challenges in Shipping (loan & contract restructuring etc.)
Who Should Attend?

 • Ship & Offshore Owners• Private Equity Firms
 • Ship Financiers• Energy & Commodities Traders
 • Investment Banks• Chief Risk Officers
 • Ship Brokers• Ship Managers
 • Ship Operators• Sale & Purchase
 • Media• Maritime Service Providers
 • Portfolio Managers• Hedge Fund Managers
 • Law Firms• Ship Charterers
 • Shipping Analysts & Consultants• Sovereign Wealth Funds


Clay Maitland
Managing Partner
International Registries Inc. and Founding Chairman of NAMEPA (North American Marine Environment Protection Association)

Clay was born in London (a U.S. citizen from birth) in 1942, and has worked in the shipping industry since graduation from law school in 1968.

Clay has been employed by International Registries, Inc., for over 30 years and is now a managing partner of the company, which administers the Marshall Islands Ship Registry - the fourth largest registry in the world. He is President of the Trust Company of the Marshall Islands (TCMI), the statutory Maritime Administrator of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. Prior to the year 2000, Clay held similar positions with regard to the maritime administration of the Republic of Liberia.

He was admitted to the New York State Bar in June, 1969, having graduated from Columbia College and New York Law School, and was associated with the New York law firm of Burlingham, Underwood & Lord and Union Carbide Corporation before joining the predecessor of International Registries in 1976. Clay has served as a legal advisor to the Liberian and Marshall Islands delegations at the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and a number of international conferences on maritime law, including: Limitation of Liability for Maritime Claims (LLMC), London, 1976; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Conditions for Registrations of Ships, Geneva, 1976-1986); Carriage of Goods by Sea, Hamburg, 1978; United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea, 1976-1983; United Nations Conference on Maritime Liens and Ship Mortgages, Geneva, 1993; United Nations (IMO) Conference on the ISPS Code, London, 2002; Conference and Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping (STCW), London, 1995; UN Conference on the Fish Stocks Agreement, New York, 1994. He has been a delegate at the Legal Committee of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) intermittently from 1980. Clay is co-author of Bareboat Charter Registration: Legal Issues and Commercial Benefits, published by the International Chamber of Commerce (Paris).

Among his other affiliations: Director of the Coast Guard Foundation; former Chairman of the National Maritime Historical Society; former Chair of the Admiralty Committee of the New York City Bar Association, and of the Committee on Intergovernmental Organizations of the Maritime Law Association of the United States (MLA); Member of the American Bureau of Shipping, and of the National Cargo Bureau; Founding Chairman of the North American Marine Environment Protection Association (NAMEPA); Convenor of the North American Maritime Ministry Association (NAMMA), Industry Advisory Board; Member of the Board of the New York Seamen's Church Institute; Member, American Bar Association, New York City Bar Association and Maritime Law Association of the United States.

Clay received the Honorary Degree of Doctor of Letters from the State University of New York Maritime College in 2006.

Jonathan B. Chappell
CFA -- Executive Director, Equity Research
J.P. Morgan Equity Research

Jonathan Chappell, CFA, a senior equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities, provides research coverage of small- and mid-cap transportation stocks, with a coverage universe that includes international oil tanker and dry bulk shipping companies, a U.S. inland barge company, oil services and equipment companies, and a fuel reseller. Jon has been an equity research analyst since 1996. After spending more than three years at Value Line providing research coverage for several different industries as a generalist, Jon joined J.P. Morgan Securities' freight transportation team in 1999 focusing on the U.S. railroad and trucking sectors. Jon began to cover stocks in the oil tanker industry in 2001 as an associate analyst and, following an eight-month period during which he helped ramp-up coverage of the payroll processing industry, he returned to the shipping sector as a senior analyst in 2003. Jon was named the #1 Earnings Estimator for the Marine industry by Forbes.com and Starmine in 2006, the #3 Earnings Estimator for the Oil, Gas & Consumables industry in 2007, and #2 in Stock Selection for the Marine industry in 2009. He was also named in the Wall Street Journal's Best on the Street rankings in 2006 for industrial transportation. Jon has earned a B.S. degree in Management-Finance from Binghamton University and has earned the right to use the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

Randee E. Day
Managing Director and Head of Marine
Seabury Group

Randee Day is responsible for all activities related to the maritime industry. She joined the Seabury Group in June 2004 with more than 25 years of specialized international financial expertise in the marine and energy sectors, both in senior management positions with major commercial banks and as CEO of her own advisory firm. Ms. Day formed Day & Partners, Inc. in 1985 in association with private U.K. investors. The firm specialized in raising capital and debt restructurings for the maritime, energy and cruise industries.

She has an extensive background in international trust and maritime law and has worked with clients on off-shore investing, bankruptcies, foreign judgments and strategies for disposing of real estate and shipping assets in various jurisdictions.

Ms. Day currently serves as director and audit committee chair of TBS International Ltd., a diversified international shipping company with a fleet of thirty vessels. TBS is a public company, trading on the NASDAQ. She is also a director and audit chair of Double Hull Tankers, Inc., a newly formed Marshall Islands corporation, which owns and operates seven crude oil tankers, which were purchased and chartered back to Overseas Shipholding Group. The company is publicly traded on the NYSE.

She was formerly head of J.P. Morgan's Marine Transportation and Finance department in New York. In that capacity, she was responsible for managing a $1 billion loan portfolio and two departments that handled all lending and investment requirements of shipping companies in the Western Hemisphere and the Far East. She also was an executive in the company's London office, where she managed the credit and marketing of the bank's services to European, British and Greek shipping companies and U.S. oil majors and participated in the Euro syndication market, foreign currency hedging and cross-border leasing.

Ms. Day also worked in the London offices of Continental Illinois National Bank & Trust and Bank of America. She earned a B.A. from the University of Southern California and studied at George Washington University as well as the Institute of Foreign Affairs in London.

James H. Power
Holland & Knight LLP

James H. Power is a Partner at Holland & Knight LLP and represents clients primarily engaged in transportation and energy related sectors. He focuses his practice in the areas of international law, admiralty law and transportation law. Mr. Power has extensive experience handling large complex litigation cases and has represented domestic and foreign entities in a variety of corporate transactions. He has represented foreign and domestic clients in bankruptcy and restructuring related matters. Mr. Power assists lenders and buyers in the sale and acquisition of vessels and advises parties on various maritime and regulatory aspects involved in such transactions.

Prior to entering practice, Mr. Power worked as an engineering officer onboard U.S. merchant vessels. He is a frequent speaker at maritime industry events, has written various topical articles for the maritime industry and has served in an advisory capacity for Ocean Governance issues addressed by the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Power earned a Bachelor of Science Degree from the United States Merchant Marine Academy and a Juris Doctor from Saint John's University School of Law.

Q&A Session

Participants can submit questions to the panelists prior to or during the event through the special feature on the event page, or they can email them to us at questions@webinars.capitallink.com.

Forecasting the Future Forum is organized by Capital Link, a New York-based Investor Relations and Financial Communications firm with strategic focus on shipping.

A Free and Invaluable Resource

This webinar will also be available on demand at any time after the live broadcast.

About International Registries


International Registries, Inc. (IRI) and its affiliates are the Maritime and Corporate Administrators of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) and have been administering maritime and corporate programs for over half a century. IRI prides itself on its high level of customer service, economical pricing and extensive experience. The Marshall Islands Maritime and Corporate Registry (Registry) is fully committed to the safety and security of personnel ashore and afloat, the Registry's vessels and the marine environment. IRI has an excellent reputation within the international business community and will continue to be at the forefront of vessel and corporate registries.

IRI is the world's oldest and most experienced privately administered maritime and corporate registry, providing for the specialized needs of the shipping and financial services industries across a broad commercial and economic spectrum. IRI, which is headquartered in Reston, Virginia USA, with easy access to Washington, DC, has full service offices in 20 major shipping and financial centers around the world.


IRI, through a legislatively endorsed joint venture agreement with the Government of the Marshall Islands, is authorized to administer the maritime and corporate programs for the Marshall Islands. The IRI Board of Managers is the executive body that is responsible for the Registry's growth and strategic direction.


The Marshall Islands ship registry program was initiated by the Government of the Marshall Islands in 1988. With the adoption of a new Maritime Act in 1990, the maritime laws of the Marshall Islands were aligned with the many changes in ship registration, financing and licensing that have taken place in the shipping industry. The Marshall Islands ship registry is the fourth largest open registry in the world. Vessel types include, but are not limited to, tankships, LNG/gas carriers, bulk carriers, offshore exploration and support vessels, container ships, passenger vessels and yachts. The Registry's network of worldwide offices has the ability to register a vessel, record a mortgage, form a corporation and service clientele.

About Capital Link      

Capital Link is a New York-based Investor Relations and Financial Communications firm. Capitalizing on our in-depth knowledge of the shipping industry and capital markets, Capital Link has made a strategic commitment to the industry becoming the largest provider of Investor Relations and Financial Communications services to international shipping companies listed on the US and European Exchanges. Capital Link's headquarters are in New York with a presence in London and Athens.

In our effort to enhance the information flow to the investment community and contribute to improving investor knowledge of shipping, Capital Link has undertaken a series of initiatives beyond the traditional scope of our investor relations activity, such as:
  • www.CapitalLinkShipping.com: A web based resource which provides information on the major shipping and stock market indices, as well as on all shipping stocks. It also features industry reports from major industry participants and interviews with CEOs, analysts and other market participants. The information on the website is not an offer to buy or sell any kind of securities nor does it constitute investment advice of any kind. Capital Link does not represent or warrant the accuracy of the information in this site. The user of the site acknowledges that he/she accesses the information at his/her own risk and cannot hold Capital Link liable for any matter in any way and will use the website in accordance with the Terms and Conditions specified on the website.
  • Weekly Capital Link Shipping eNewsletter: Weekly distribution to an extensive audience in US & European shipping investor community.
  • Sector Forums & Webinars: Periodically, we organize panel discussions among CEOs and analysts on various shipping sectors (containers, dry bulk, tankers) and on other topics of interest.
  • Capital Link Investor Shipping Forums: in New York, Athens and London, which bring together investors, financial advisors, listed companies CEOs, analysts, and shipping industry participants.
  • www.MaritimeIndices.com: Capital Link Maritime Indices: Capital Link developed and maintains a series of stock market maritime indices which track the performance of U.S. listed shipping stocks (CL maritime Index, CL Dry Bulk Index, CL Tanker Index, CL Container Index, CL LNG/LPG Index, CL Mixed Fleet Index, CL Shipping MLP Index - Bloomberg page: CPLI).
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